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sn#489983 filedate 1979-12-09 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
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THE REAL COMPUTER REVOLUTION
Prof. John McCarthy
Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
Computer Science Department
Stanford University, California
.end
I'll begin my talk about the computer revolution by saying
that there has not been any; it is still in the future. In fact,
while there is a literary convention that technology is accelerating
faster and faster and people are having difficulties adapting to it,
in terms of technology affecting daily life,
there has been a slow down and not a very recent slow down.
In terms of benefits of technology and also in terms of
stressing people's capacity to adapt,
less has
happened since World War II than happened say between 1890 and 1920.
We have had nothing that demands as much adaptation as the automobile
did, as the telephone did, as having electricity did, as having
domestic refrigeration did. It seems to me this has the paradoxical
effect of promoting anti-technological attitudes because the public
can quite reasonably ask, "What have they done for us lately"?
Technology has had large recent effects in increasing prosperity and
increasing health, but both prosperity and health are things that
people quite reasonably take for granted.
Perhaps I was expected to speak about artificial intelligence
and the social problems it might produce, but I would like to explain
why I won't. I think that artificial intelligence, and by
this I mean intelligence on the human level, is achievable and when it
comes it will be more revolutionary than any previous scientific
development, but I also think that I do not know enough about what it
will really be like to say anything sensible about what its social
effects will be. I thought about it quite a bit, and I think almost
everyone else knows even less than I about it.
Some people, for example Ed Fredkin of M.I.T and Donald Michie
of Edinburgh University, beat the
drum about the social importance of AI
and hold conferences on "what if" and so
forth. I deplore this and ask you to imagine
that someone had managed in the last
American presidential election or the forthcoming one or in some
Israeli election to ask the leading candidates their positions on
artificial intelligence. After they finish saying "huh?" and decided
that there was some possible advantage in having a
position, they would turn to some underling who would write
whatever came to his mind and whatever would suit better the doctrine
of that party and we would be no better off; it probably would not do
any harm but it might, because who knows, there might be some law that
would be stupefying in its silliness. Computer scientists
would at best find themselves in the position of the biologists
regarding recombinant DNA - spending full time explaining why various
proposals would be harmful.
What I do want to talk about is home computer terminals and
unreconstructed time-sharing and to compare them with home computers.
I don't object to home computers, that is to say having a
terminal with a computer in it, but I think what is happening with
home computers is what could have been expected; most people, even
most scientifically educated people have little
use for computering per se except perhaps as a hobby.
I have had a terminal in
my home for more than ten years, and I use it a lot for
writing books, papers and letters and sending and receiving messages and keeping
up with the news
and occasionally for writing programs. However,
I have never written a program that has anything to do with my
domestic life though I do keep a few files on hand that are relevant
to that, and sometimes they are helpful if I actually remember to look
at them. These applications don't require that the terminal have
independent computing capability; mine has, and I haven't used it.
They do require communication capability and the availability of substantial
private and public files on disk.
Let me begin by describing some of the things we have done at
Stanford and that have been done at some other places that might be
relevant to the question of home use of computers.
When we started our laboratory in 1966, we had already decided
that documentation was going to be an important use of our computer.
We arranged to
have a line printer that would print upper and lower case and a large
character set, which was much more of an expense at that time than it
is today. When the opportunity came around 1970 we planned and built
a system which provided for a terminal in each office rather than
terminals in terminal rooms, and we arranged that the secretaries
should also have terminals. I became interested in home computing
about that time and foresaw a very substantial chicken
and egg problem, because the applications of home computing really
are communication and data base applications, and if you do not have
the data bases then how are you going to demonstrate the applications.
We finally found one where the necessary data bases are electronically
available, and this is a news service.
the news service. We have coming into our computer the news wires of
the Associated Press and the %2New York Times%1. Our computer is
connected to the wire just as though it were a teletype in a newspaper
office.
As each story comes into
the computer,
it is indexed by all non-trivial words, i.e. all but words like "the"
and "he".
The result is a continuously updated concordance of the day's news
stories.
Each midnight the file of
the day's stories is closed, and we keep two weeks; if we had
more disk file we would keep more. Aftter the program user types
NS for "news
service", he can give the program a "key word expression". Thus
if he were intereseted in Israel but felt he had heard enough
about Dayan's resignation then he might type the key word expression
"israel-dayan" which would give all stories that
had the word "Israel" in them but did not have the word "Dayan" in
them. You can make arbitrarily complex Boolean expressions.
Actually the data base is small enough so that false hits do not
bother you.
This system is quite crude, but in some respects it compares
favorably with the much more sophisticated %2New York Times%1 Data Bank.
The latter employs human abstractors who make abstracts of
everything that appears in the %2Times%1 and many other publications
and files them under key words that seem
important to the abstractors
at the time. If something becomes important in retrospect,
for example the building Watergate, then you cannot go back in time
and say what stories mention Watergate before the time it became
important because the abstractor didn't then consider it important.
One
can ask NS to be notified when stories
that fit specified key word expression come in. You get
an announcement if your are logged in and
electronic mail if you are not.
You can also move stories to files
or print them. This was one of the few experiments aimed at home
computer use that could done in 1972.
Our Dialnet project is also relevant.
It is a project for communication between
computers giving services like those of the ARPANET to any computer that will
equip itself with a computer operated
telephone dialer and a 1200 baud Bell System
compatible modem and implement the Dialnet protocols.
Given this, a user can transfer a
file between his computer and any other computer. He need only give
the local file name and the foreign file name and then get through
the other computer's password fence.
It does require something that one might take as obvious -
that every computer system have a systemwide naming of files. However
curiously enough, and this will be my first nibble on a hand that have
been very generous. Few if any IBM operating
systems have this elementary
characteristic of having systemwide file names. What we actually need
and can get by suitable prefexing is world wide file names so that you
can refer by name to any file in the world - not necessarily that
everybody would let you have any file or even admit that it exists.
Dialnet is also used to send computer mail. Thus a
computer may receive a telephone call from another computer in which
it says "I have mail for your user named so-and-so", and of course the
receiving
computer can reply or just hang up or it can reply that it has no such
user or it can accept the mail. Perhaps this is the way computer mail
should have been developed in
the first place instead of basing an ARPAnet on
leased dedicated facilities. The standard dial-up telephone network much
more capability than has been exercised. For example, it is already
international.
Another sort of protoproduct project
is the Common Business Communication Language. When I first thought of
it, it didn't seem to have much scientific interest and certainly no
connection with artificial intelligence research. It seemed to be
just another idea for using computers to increase human productivity.
It was set off by
reading a 1965 article about the world of the future.
It was a 1965
model world of the future, and it referred to a time when businesses
would be quite computerised.
There was a scenario in which a clerk in
the purchasing department of a company hears a beep and
turns to a display screen that says, "We need 5000 pencils. Order
them from company B". She (Sorry Pat, this is a 1965 model
world of the future.) turns from her terminal
to her typewriter and types out a purchase order which
is duly sent to company B where another clerk turns from her
incoming mail basket to a
terminals and types "Send IBM 5000 pencils".
We would like to let both
clerks do something more worthy of their talents and have the
computers communicate with each other directly. In order to do this we
need a standard business communication language wherein one computer
can call up another and can say "What is your price and delivery for
5000 pencils?" and "I hereby order 5000 pencils" and things like that.
This may seem like a grubby bit of commercial standardization
of no interest to computer scientists,
but in fact it raises all sorts of interesting
questions.
One question is how such a system can ever change.
I began to think about this while
visiting a San Diego naval training facility.
There is something called the fleet data system
whereby every ship in a fleet would know about all of the
airplanes and ships that any of the ships in the fleet had detected
by exchanging messages. At the time NATO was
going to join this system and suitable committees had determined that
the system should be updated or improved at that time and there was to
be a cutover day. There was the hope that the Russians would not do
any thing on this cutover day because things were surely going to be
in a great state of confusion. Presumably this has happened by now,
since the visit was 7 or 8 years ago. Massive changes on cutover dates are
quite unsatisfactory for large communication and data systems and would
be almost impossible for loosely coupled systems involving tens of
thousands of computers of differing ages, sizes and manufacturers under
no central management.
Growth requires that when a new kind of message is introduced
message sources begin transmitting both kinds of message. When enough
new style messages are being transmitted, receivers begin using them.
When no-one requires old style messages, their transmission may stop.
Another design idea is that each message should be a
list, and every item should be a either an
atom or a list whose first item
designates what kind of a thing the list represents.
You may have heard of such
lists; they begin and end with parentheses. Remember that
only computers get to see them.
Another characteristic was suggested
in N. Chomsky's book %2Reflections on Language%1; he claims that human
languages have it, other linguists dispute it, but anyway we want it for
our Common Business Communication Language. It is that the syntax
never requires an atom at
any place. For example, if a price is to be designated then of course
$3.12 is a reasonable thing to appear as a list item, but any
expression designating a price should also be allowed, such as
translations of %2"the same price as last week"%1 or %2"in accordance with
our contract"%1 or %2"the price granted to the most favored customer"%1
or whatever.
When I tried to specify a simple version of a CBCL that would
be expandable, I found substantial
difficulties which led to some interesting scientific problems. Consider
designing how delivery is specified. First, the conditions might be
unspecified, meaning that the delivery conditions are
standard, or it might say %2"the best way"%1. However, if you want
to elaborate what is really to be allowed in delivery specifications,
there are all
kinds of conditional specifications such as %2"to be sent by
Federal Express
unless they are on strike, in which case it goes by post office"%1 or
vice versa. It turns out that a substantial and interesting part of
the ⊗semantics of natural language is involved in formalizing what one
business computer might say to another.
This is interesting from a scientific point
of view, because interest in computational linguistics has mainly
focused on the syntax of language. Here is a case where we are going
to use a perfectly rigid syntax decided in advance, but we have all
the semantic problems of deciding exactly what so you want one computer
to be able to say to another.
This has led me to the belief that putting English language "front ends"
on programs that basically speak in "computerese"
may miss the point scientifically, because more interesting than
how to say in natural language what we already say in
various computer input-output jargons, is how to make the computer say
things said in
natural language that we do not presently know how to make computers
say at all.
This was by way of an advertisement for the scientific
interest of some of these problems. Another important feature
of our environment is
the mail system that permits sending electronic mail all over
the ARPANET and to other places. I certainly have gotten into the
state where I divide the world into two classes of people -
those to whom I can send ARPANET mail and those with whom I have to rely
upon more ordinary kinds of communication. I think I will not sing my
song about why it is often better than telephoning and things like
that. I will say that I suspect that IBM may have gone into some kind
of blind alley if they suppose that the speech filing system will
obviate the need for written electronic mail facilities for everybody -
even executives - who can type as well as engineers
when they have the motivation - and
under certain circumstances, I believe they will.
I would like to do as the other speakers have done and talk about social
effects, but I want to express the opinion that much of the talk
about the effects of technology has been harmful and even immoral.
I believe that people should be cautious
about talking about social effects, especially about talking about
planning desirable social effects and planning that undesirable social
effects should be avoided. The danger is that this will
come down to planning other people's lives for them, and it seems
to me that this disease afflicts many of those
Americans who refer to themselves as the "%2public policy
community"%1.
In
particular, I doubt the virtue of the Office of Technology Assessment
which Congress created to advise about the consequences of new technology.
Its attitude seems to be %2"Don't do anything new without consulting us, and our
new director will take office in a few months, and we will be able to
consider these things when we have decided in what order to start to
consider them"%1.
Let me put it this way: hardly any technology has
specific
social effects, good or bad; what technology does is provide
opportunities. Some people can use these opportunities to do things
that will turn out to be good and other people can use them to do
things that turn out to be harmful. Which you emphasize
depends less on specific technologies than on how you
look at people and institutions and the ways they can be
expected to use any opportunity.
You say that if we give them the chance
they are sure to abuse it, and you can have two kinds of worry: one is
what they will do to each other and the other is what they will do to
themselves.
Some people worry that if people have too much access to
computer files they will waste their time or if they have time-sharing
they will try out programs without adequately thinking. They are
really all out to help each other by disciplining each other. Dijkstra's
book %2"A Discipline of Programming"%1 suggests to me
a book jacket picture of someone
standing on a dais with a whip menacing a crowd of half-naked programmers
at computer terminals. So if
you want discpline, put an ad in the %2Berkeley Barb%1.
My idea of social consciousness is different, and instead of
inventing ways in which things might go wrong, I would like to discuss
some useful opportunities. After all, the probability that an opportunity
will be missed is far greater than the probability that an unfortunate
aspect of an application will go unnoticed.
For some years now, disk storage has been cheap enough so that
it has been economical to have a national library in which everything
that has been written is stored on disk and available from a terminal
anywhere in a country or even in the world. Such a file would be the
effective equivalent of a very large number of copies of the book.
Recently it has become cheaper to store even a single copy on disk
than on a library shelf - counting the cost of the library, staffing
it, cataloging the book and the cost of the book itself. Rumor has
it that IBM can make disk files of more than six times the density
of the current best that would cost little more to produce. Our
society has suffered from missing the 1970 opportunity to create
such a library, and the blame for this belongs mainly to the technology
assessors, whose imaginations extend only to what may go wrong
with new technology.
The simple convenience
of having everything in the Library of Congress immediately available
is important in itself; much misinformation would be avoided if such
facts as are available could be easily looked up. However, its effect
on the future of publication is sociologically even more interesting.
If all publication is available via terminals from disk file,
then publication consists merely of declaring public a file that
you have put into the system. In order to get anybody to
read it you have to get it to his attention, and since we can't suppose
that people will read more than now, this will continue
to be complicated and uncertain. As now, some people will read
files constituting book reviews, and the reviewers will review what
books they would consider worthwhile, and so forth.
People who
write something eccentric or not of much interest to other
people will have as much trouble getting their stuff read under a new
system as they do now.
The important fact is that such a system will make the writers,
especially the well known ones, substantially independent of publishers. The
cost of getting a book out for a reader is now something like between
10α% and 20α% to the writer and 80α% printing and distribution costs, and
these numbers can easily be reversed. I think this would make for
fewer fads and it would also have the important social effect that a
smaller public would be needed in order to support someone who is
writing because he could get his income with roughly one-fifth of the
number of readers that he presently needs. Another aspect is that much
more detailed information would be available for those who want it.
When we first put the Associated Press into our computer I had
this hope that there must be all these great stories that the AP put
out that the newspapers don't print, but of course that was a dumb
idea. AP is a co-op of newspapers and it is not going to put out any
stories that the newspapers aren't likely to print. So it turns out
really shallow, and if you consider the AP correspondent in a place
like Moscow or Peking or Jerusalem,
you must say that he must get a bit bored with
his job. because he writes the much same thing every day, and he does not
write very much. It is just packaged in what a newspaper is likely to
print.
Another desirable social effect of on-line publication
is to make an effective
right of reply. Politicians and journalists often engage in hit-and-run
controversy, in what he says or writes
depends to a large extent for its effect on the fact that people who
disagree with it or the people who are specifically attacked will not
be able to mount an instant reply. With the on-line system, if you read
(say) an attack on the "Eastern Establishment" by
a Republican President,
then you could ask your terminal %2"What do the Democrats reply to
that?"%1. I think this
would enhance the quality of debate which has greatly declined in the
United States at least in the past 100 years. If you read even part of
the Lincoln-Douglas debates you discover that one of them could
propound to the other a very complex hypothetical question about what
the country should do "if" and the other would actually feel
obliged to answer. That certainly has not happened at all recently.
The third aspect of such a new system which I consider desirable
is that it would enhance the ability of a group to maintain its
separateness if it so desires. They could be physically scattered but
intellectually much closer together; the cost of having a newspaper or
magazine or whatever kind of communication seemed best to them would
be greatly reduced from what it is now.
*
Now I want to finish off by giving some advice, unsolicited of
course. We will give this advice to three entities, the first of which
is IBM which has generously supported this symposium. The first
question is when are they going to give up the punch card check? But I
have already asked that. I think one of the key requirements for the
near future is good time sharing, and my past experience with IBM
systems has confirmed my prejudices that it is not up to the state of
the art in its complexity in its terminals, etc. I don't want to go
into that right now; if they ask me I will tell them.
There is another aspect that is interesting, and that has to do
with an example that Lewis Branscomb gave this morning. that has to do
with on-line application that was interrupted for some batch
processing. If there is any technology trade off which has a social
impact it is the distinction between batch and on-line processing. One
can say that whatever they did do, updating this data base with batch
processing should have been done on-line, but in some sense one could
claim that batch processing has been responsible for many of the evils
that have been ascribed to computers. If the information is sitting
there on a shelf on a tape and somebody asks a question, you can't do
anything about that until the next time you run the data through. In
many cases you can't do anything about it period except run over the
documents. Whereas if you are running on a time sharing load you can
at least answer the question as to what is in the data base and maybe
even change it.
It seems to me that one kind of system which should be
considered for the next ten years are systems in which the customer
has direct access to at least part of the data base so that the
customer who has a terminal can find the state of his account even at
2:00 in the morning, if that's what he feels like doing, with of
course suitable handling and safe guards of one kind or another. For
example, the worst safe guard would be if you really don't care that
people are looking where you have been and this is rather easy;
otherwise you can ask for any degree of security that you desire and
pay for it, either in money or lack of access for yourself. I consider
the 360 to have been somewhat of a tragedy; it was almost given up for
time sharing but not quite.
Now I want to give some advice to governments. One piece of
advice to the US government: there is all this information that is
supposed to be available according to Freedom of Information, but of
course it is sitting in libraries or reading rooms in the agencies.
While one is prodding the government to do something maybe one should
require that all of this information should be available on-line on a
terminal anywhere in the country.
I have talked enough, so I will skip the rest of my advice.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FOLLOWING PRESENTATION:
J. Raviv:
John McCarthy said that he didn't want to talk about artificial
intelligence, but I don't think we should let him off so easily. I
would like to ask the following question: There has been a lot of
research going on in artificial intelligence and on robotics at
Stanford under your direction at SRI and at MIT. I was wondering if
you could summarize what some of the benefits are that we have
obtained from this research but not to direct the answer towards
industrial robots because this is not the same kind of sophisticated
work that you are leading. What is the benefit to our profession and
to man and society, either right now or in the future?
J. McCarthy:
I think the practical benefits today have been minimal. There
have certainly been many beneficial by-products of artificial
intelligence, for example, time sharing, maxima, etc., but I believe
that artifical intelligence is in a basic research stage and will
remain in that stage quite a long time to come. There are people who
are saying that since it has not produced any great practical
importance in twenty years we should stop. Should we have said that
about genetics twenty years after Gregor Mendel, which would have been
actually before the subject got started. One slogan which I put forth
on that is that for artifical intelligence to reach a human level will
require 1.7 Einsteins and .3 of the Manhattan Project, and it would be
best to have the Einstein before the Manhattan Project. I think that
artificial intelligence has already had some scientific and some
philosophical benefits. The scientific benefits are that the cognitive
approach to psychology has been an outgrowth of work in artificial
intelligence, although the main contributors to this area, Newell and
Simon of the Carnegie-Mellon group, have been interested in both all
along. This has really demolished behaviorism as the paradigm for
psychology, and this demolition was something that was clearly
required for progress. The same thing is true, even though the
prospect achievabless advanced, in philosophy in that there were many
forms of philosophy in empiricism and positivism, etc. that were akin
to behaviorism in methodology and which have now given way to the
willingness of philosophers to understand that if you really want to
understand thought or belief or something like that then you have to
admit rather complex mechanisms. Now as to one potential benefit that
I see in the offing, this is a bit of mathematical empirialism, why
can't we in society do the right thing by establishing the basic facts
as axioms of a theory and deducing that a certain course of action
will have desirable results. We could end the controversy because
everyone could examine the basis for these axioms and decide that they
agree with them and examine the proof that the desired course of
action would have good results, and then we would not be squabbling so
much.
Now this goal of a scientific approach to social problems is one
which requires an enormous advance in our ability to formulate facts
about the world before it becomes even remotely feasible. It has a bad
name because it is very easy to claim that you already have it, and
you can put people in jail who claim that your theory is not
scientific; then it gives you a good way for convincing a reasonable
fraction of the world's population that such a way has been
discovered. But it does depend on the ability to put opponents in
jail.
M. Rabin:
Would you care to comment on the various programming languages
which arose out of the artificial intelligence effort, the various
capabilities and flexibility that is afforded to use through these
languages and would you say, in your opinion, does this get us closer
to the solution of the problem of making the man machine
communication, that the first speakers spoke about, easier?
J. McCarthy:
LISP was the first language oriented toward artificial
intelligence and it had no competitor that survived at all for maybe
seven or eight years. Then we had MICROPLANNER, and then there were a
quick succession of such languages that killed each other off. I kind
of liked MICROPLANNER; I thought that in many respects it was an
improvement on LISP, but then things got very complicated and people
went back to programming in raw LISP.
The systems which are combined data bases and languages like KRL,
in my opinion, suffer from technical deficiencies; there is too much
based on Minsky's frame paradigm and Shank's script. I don't think
that languages are artificial intelligence per se and nor do I think
that all communication with computers has to be in natural language.
To some extent one could say they used to try this out on ARPA. It is
indeed possible to program a computer in English; it is also possible
to make an airplane that is controlled by whip and spurs, but it may
not be equally desirable.
J. Raviv:
There is a friend of mine who worked in an area of artificial
intelligence, and I asked him in 1964 what he thought would happen,
what are the hopes, the practical applications. He said that in ten
years there will be a robot delivering mail. He didn't mean in a
hospital or something that is happening now, but like delivering mail
in the suburbs. Was a statement like that irresponsible on his side or
was there a hope of sorts or have things changed?
J. McCarthy:
I don't think the statement was irresponsible if it wasn't
irresponsibly made. Namely, if someone asks you how long something
will take, one way of doing it is adding up the time you imagine it
will take to overcome the difficulties you recognize. If it happens
there are unrecognized difficulties or if it happens that your idea of
what is required is mistaken, then you will come up with incorrect
estimates. I will admit that I expected greater progress in the
robotics area than has occurred. When we first started our project in
1965 I thought we would have programs and that we would be able to
assemble a heathkit out of parts in a couple of years. Part of the
reason that we aren't here yet is that the problem was more difficult
than I expected. But another part was that I didn't understand what I
read somewhere that it takes ten years to develop a scientific
laboratory. It is really true in this area that there are only now
beginning to be people who are really professional in robotics. There
were dilettantes like me who had ideas in the field but were not
totally committed to it, and there were people who had disliked the
previous branches of science they had tried and very often they turned
out to dislike robotics also. Now we are beginning to get some sort of
core of professionals in the field, and maybe progress will be faster
now. As I said in my lecture in Jerusalem there is too much
concentration now on short range demonstration projects. In some sense
there is less thinking about basic scientific problems of heuristics
and epistomology than there was in the late 50's when artificial
intelligence first got started. I think this has to be reversed.
P. Goldberg:
To what extent do you think that this problem which you just
described stems from the fact that there are too many people in the
field which is not ready for that assault?
J. McCarthy:
I don't know. It is hard for me to see that there are too many
relative to other fields. There is no reason why all those smart
people could not do better if they would only listen to me.